A while ago i sold by stake in blackberry and promised not to buy back into the company until i saw solid evidence that they were set for the future and were able to take the correct path and sustain growth and profit.
Today tested me, the stock was rallying hit $13.59 and i read an article about how blackberry are doing better then people believe, i was close to taking a position on the stock but then i remembered i had promised myself not to buy blackberry and so with all the will power i could muster i didn't, i though i had got it wrong when the stock hit $13.70 and carried on climbing. I began to believe that other investors like me thought that blackberry are worth more then then £6-7 billion market capitalization they have. It is my sincere belief that although Blackberry have made mistakes in the past, i have blogged about them before feel free to look, but there are ways for blackberry to come back, yes one of them is to rid of there CEO and replace him with someone more into the market and who seems to know what he/she is doing.
However as i write this a small grin has formed on my face as the stock is back down to $13.38 (although still a growth it would have been a loss on a position at the early high), one day i have ever intention of re-taking a position in blackberry but that day was not today and i highly doubt it will be tomorrow although i just read an article that has got me rather excited.
Thursday, 28 February 2013
Wednesday, 27 February 2013
Will google ever stop growing?
If markets close today for Google at over $800 dollars a share then in just one year they would of earned nearly $200 each (markets closed on the 27th of February 2012 at $609.31).
Google is king of the internet with the most hits of any site on the internet but Google is more then that, not only do Google offer numerous online services that are always growing but they offer a number of products in the real world. At this rate Google shares are going to be even higher, but will they at any point stop growing? Let me have a look
Google already offers a number of online services but they are also always working to create a more diverse range of products that once someone starts to use them they wonder how they ever lived without them. I personally refuse to use Microsoft office now as i see Google's Drive as a much better and useful way. Able to store all my documents on the same user as my G mail account? that's brilliant, simply genius how did i ever live without that? G mail is another thing that changed my life, the ease of using it is so much better then anything else i nearly laugh when somebody gives me a "Hotmail address" I love my G mail it sinks perfectly with my Google chrome browser and my YouTube account, I cannot think of a time within the last few years that i have managed to go on a internet linked computer and not go on something to do with Google. Sure CERN created the internet but Google are the internet now.
In the real world Google is going from strength to strength first with there market dominating OS but then also with there laptops made by other people and most recently there self made laptop (although with the price of this i'm not sure how well it will do) but perhaps the most exciting thing for me is Google Glass a leap into an untested market, Google what it does online in the real world, sure the prototypes may not be all that and what people are saying about them at the moment may not be 100% here but what we have is the chance for Google to start a new trend off, a new big thing and who will cash in big on this? Google.
A little while ago i was excited over the blackberry stock and what BB10 could mean for it, sure i made a large return on this (if i remember it was over 20%) but i believe blackberry is now limited by the CEO and until they replace him they will be stuck where they are (see here for more http://bit.ly/11Gvij2) this is why i am not re-investing in this company until i see solid proof there CEO is up to the task
But now the world is full of as Google would call them Googletunities.
Google is king of the internet with the most hits of any site on the internet but Google is more then that, not only do Google offer numerous online services that are always growing but they offer a number of products in the real world. At this rate Google shares are going to be even higher, but will they at any point stop growing? Let me have a look
Google already offers a number of online services but they are also always working to create a more diverse range of products that once someone starts to use them they wonder how they ever lived without them. I personally refuse to use Microsoft office now as i see Google's Drive as a much better and useful way. Able to store all my documents on the same user as my G mail account? that's brilliant, simply genius how did i ever live without that? G mail is another thing that changed my life, the ease of using it is so much better then anything else i nearly laugh when somebody gives me a "Hotmail address" I love my G mail it sinks perfectly with my Google chrome browser and my YouTube account, I cannot think of a time within the last few years that i have managed to go on a internet linked computer and not go on something to do with Google. Sure CERN created the internet but Google are the internet now.
In the real world Google is going from strength to strength first with there market dominating OS but then also with there laptops made by other people and most recently there self made laptop (although with the price of this i'm not sure how well it will do) but perhaps the most exciting thing for me is Google Glass a leap into an untested market, Google what it does online in the real world, sure the prototypes may not be all that and what people are saying about them at the moment may not be 100% here but what we have is the chance for Google to start a new trend off, a new big thing and who will cash in big on this? Google.
A little while ago i was excited over the blackberry stock and what BB10 could mean for it, sure i made a large return on this (if i remember it was over 20%) but i believe blackberry is now limited by the CEO and until they replace him they will be stuck where they are (see here for more http://bit.ly/11Gvij2) this is why i am not re-investing in this company until i see solid proof there CEO is up to the task
But now the world is full of as Google would call them Googletunities.
Monday, 25 February 2013
Time to put my delta back on
Recently i have been running a very risky portfolio that much is clear, i have upped my positions from 40% of my portfolio to 77% yeah i nearly doubled it but it was all to practice making calls and about 20% of that is locked away in long term positions but perhaps the most risky thing is not having any delta, i sold my delta when the profits were up and never got round to buying new delta and as a consequence i have paid the price losing about 3.2% of my profits in 2 weeks. I have learnt a very valuable lesson then and that is "always have a delta" the problem i have is now to get my delta up to what i would consider a reasonable size i would loose nearly all of my cash, or i could sell my long term position at a loss... its a tough call but i think i have the answer....
Friday, 22 February 2013
A big time for technology
I am very excited about the future of technology companies and anyone can see why, but if anyone out there isn't in sync with the news well don't worry, read on and i'll explain.
Today we say news from Microsoft (or a source close to them) that they will be announcing there very own next generation of console in April, why should people be excited over this well the answers are obvious, if we look at the impact the PlayStation 4 announcement had on Sony we can see this is big, not only were the stock price up but also hype has been surrounding this console and indeed this company, not much is known yet but what we do know has made gamers (me included) go insane, the prospect of next generation consoles by the end of the year is tantalizing to everyone who has an interest in games. I have a PS3 and i prefer it to the Xbox rival but i fear this could change with the next gen if Sony are going to be as socially gaming minded as it seems they are, this is big as i am a hardcore PlayStation fan boy, i love PlayStation and so for me to be thinking they may be about to make a mistake then there are probably millions of people thinking the same, the next generation could be Microsoft's to dominate.
But what has got me excited the most is Google not with there overpriced laptop called the Chromebook pixel but instead with the glass, this is revolutionary and i can see it being very big in the future (providing it works and the price goes down) i remember one of my first tweets on my stock twitter was about Google hitting $700 a share and that i wouldn't touch it and now here i am at more then $790 thinking its time to take a position, Google are the internet in school if you want something its "Google it" for a company to be like this is big but not just that they now run web services in nearly every sector and also create phones to rival apple and now it seems computers to rival them as-well, but they are also diversifying and offering a product others don't.... in theme with this blog Google are becoming Hyperion
Still so much to learn
I apologize for how long it has taken me to write another blog, i promised i would try to write atleast one blog a day and i have not stuck to that, i apologize But it was for good reason for i was reading a book called "the fear index" to say that this book absorbed me is an understatement let me promise you that.
This book opened my mind and made me go and research things that i had previously not come across one being the Vix, i quickly went on google and saw that it had been climbing while markets had been falling and that it seemed to be the perfect (or as near as) reflection of the s and p 500, i noticed my portfolio has been down the last few days and i have gone from 10% profit to 6% (i've also upped my positions and also my risk, more on that at some other point) and i see now that the vix is my favorite index of a market.
I have also become excited by algorithms and what this could mean to markets around the world.
I plan to post again later to see if my presumptions on today's markets are correct or not
What i'm trying to say here then is that I'm still learning and the markets are still a big untapped field of knowledge that i realize i still do not understand properly but i plan to carry on learning so stay tuned to see progress. Information is great and when you taking something you know little about and make sense of it that is a truly beautiful thing as intelligence has been created in an area one was previously naive in, my lack of knowledge excites me as it means there's still so much for me to learn.
What i'm trying to say here then is that I'm still learning and the markets are still a big untapped field of knowledge that i realize i still do not understand properly but i plan to carry on learning so stay tuned to see progress. Information is great and when you taking something you know little about and make sense of it that is a truly beautiful thing as intelligence has been created in an area one was previously naive in, my lack of knowledge excites me as it means there's still so much for me to learn.
Thursday, 14 February 2013
Cisco down?
Cisco yesterday published higher then expected Q2 which should mean there stock price is up right??? Wrong. But what i want to know is why....
See this is something i really don't understand but if i had to take a guess i would guess it is to do with CISCO's history, once a stock worth $500 Billion Cisco has now fallen to around the point of $111 billion, i can see that many people may have got burned over this stock and so are uncomfortable with taking another position no matter how well the company is doing. Peoples opinions may be prejudice against Cisco as they may feel that they have been there and been hurt before. Cisco is the second highest earning stock in my portfolio currently (not including stocks i have sold) and so i think Cisco is a brilliant stock, the company seems to know its place and market well and is able to capitalize on that, sure the stock had a bad time in the past but if people never gave stocks a second chance then where would we be? Cisco was once a $500 billion company for a reason and i believe it deserves to be closer to that figure then it is today.
See this is something i really don't understand but if i had to take a guess i would guess it is to do with CISCO's history, once a stock worth $500 Billion Cisco has now fallen to around the point of $111 billion, i can see that many people may have got burned over this stock and so are uncomfortable with taking another position no matter how well the company is doing. Peoples opinions may be prejudice against Cisco as they may feel that they have been there and been hurt before. Cisco is the second highest earning stock in my portfolio currently (not including stocks i have sold) and so i think Cisco is a brilliant stock, the company seems to know its place and market well and is able to capitalize on that, sure the stock had a bad time in the past but if people never gave stocks a second chance then where would we be? Cisco was once a $500 billion company for a reason and i believe it deserves to be closer to that figure then it is today.
Wednesday, 13 February 2013
Why i never normally buy into banks
Stocks are risky business that much is sure and so i try to limit the risk of my portfolio, one of the ways i do this is by not investing in banks, well besides my small investment in Berkshire Hathaway, I'll explain that later.
Personally i don't like investing in a bank as the success of that investment depends on the success of the investments investments. This to me seems like doubling the risk behind a investment as what would happen if your invested bank all of a sudden made a wrong investment that had catastrophic misshapenings on the banks profits? All of a sudden you're investment would be paying for another persons bad investment. I know that this is normally not the case and generally the people working at a bank know what they're doing but if we take the case kweku Adoboli who lost UBS £1.4 billion and resulted in a £29.7 million fine to the bank. Many people were reporting around this time that this case and this one person nearly brough UBS to its knees, i can not comment if this is true or not as i did not look to much into it but if somebody remembers then feel free to add it to the comments.
My point is this, if you had an investment in a bank and that bank made a bad move and lost alot of money, maybe even more then UBS you are suddenly stuck with a stock that will rapidly decline in price and why? Because of somebody elses mistake.
I recently bought shares in Berkshire Hathaway and readers will now be thinking that i'm very hypocritical but i truely only bought them because of Warren Buffet, for 50 years he has lead Berkshire Hathaway to an average growth of 13.5% growth in stock value. Warren Buffet is my idol a man who i believe everyone should look up to and i know deep down one of the reasons i bought this stock was because of him and i also appreciate that i stand a high chance of getting burnt over this.
The world of banking is a funny industry as i found out when i went on work experience maybe i'll write a blog about it some time.
Why $BBRY will return but not quite yet
I promise that this (until i re-buy into Blackberry) that this will be my last post about them, for i have just rand from the stock at $14.63 having paid $15.86 (ouch i know i took $1230 loss but i have earnt enough on this stock in the past to pay for this.
I see a time in the future where Blackberry will be a big business again and there stock will be much higher the $20 a stock and the reason for this is the following, Blackberry used to be cool and so has an image that they can build on, many people used to have Blackberrys and they were a sign of being professional, sophisticated and/or cool then name Blackberry although may strike up images of phones that have seen better days they are still Blackberry and they are still know. Although its true that once a company in the technology industry falls behind it is hard for them to come back we have never seen this happen with a company that once had the image of Blackberry. People still want to buy a blackberry if they admit it or not, they still have the cool factor and i believe there new phone and OS really has the chance to take of as it boasts stats that quite frankly put the iPhone 5 to shame. Blackberry needs to relaunch its image and re-establish themselves as the cool phone to have amoungst people instead of the iPhone however i do not believe that there current CEO is up to the task and i feel that he is currently holding Blackberry behind.
while writing this the Blackberry stock dropped to $14.30 and has climbed to $14.60 again, such an unpredictable stock and such an unpredictable company i really truly believe this is a shame and would hate to see this company disappear as i believe there really is a chance for this company to dominate once again.
Just a small post for now as i plan to write another one later
I see a time in the future where Blackberry will be a big business again and there stock will be much higher the $20 a stock and the reason for this is the following, Blackberry used to be cool and so has an image that they can build on, many people used to have Blackberrys and they were a sign of being professional, sophisticated and/or cool then name Blackberry although may strike up images of phones that have seen better days they are still Blackberry and they are still know. Although its true that once a company in the technology industry falls behind it is hard for them to come back we have never seen this happen with a company that once had the image of Blackberry. People still want to buy a blackberry if they admit it or not, they still have the cool factor and i believe there new phone and OS really has the chance to take of as it boasts stats that quite frankly put the iPhone 5 to shame. Blackberry needs to relaunch its image and re-establish themselves as the cool phone to have amoungst people instead of the iPhone however i do not believe that there current CEO is up to the task and i feel that he is currently holding Blackberry behind.
while writing this the Blackberry stock dropped to $14.30 and has climbed to $14.60 again, such an unpredictable stock and such an unpredictable company i really truly believe this is a shame and would hate to see this company disappear as i believe there really is a chance for this company to dominate once again.
Just a small post for now as i plan to write another one later
Tuesday, 12 February 2013
Why now is time to buy EBAY
As i write this my portfolio is down for the second day in a row, this week is not a good week however i have added 2 new stocks to my portfolio and i feel rather excited about the future of both, today i will explain why i am excited about my $56.55 buy of EBAY.
I would first like to point out i know i paid a premium for this stock and admittedly the day after i bought my 250 stocks i turned on my pc after getting home (around about 3:50) to watch the ebay stock slump, yes Monday i watched my new investment fall and at first i doubted my long term commitment, but then a Mr. Warren Buffet's words reached me and reminded me not to worry about the daily fluctuations of a stock if i was in it for the long run and indeed i am and here is why.
EBAY owns PayPal yes my whole buying of this stock is based on this one fact but i consider it to be a massive fact. The reason for this is that PayPal is firmly built into the backbone of the internet and if you go to buy something online the chances are there is going to be a PayPal selection, PayPal is the easiest and safest way to make purchases online and as consumer trends grow more and more in favor of online shopping this will come into its own even more, soon websites and people will be more reliant then ever on internet shopping and sitting behind this will be EBAY with PayPal, many big online sites all offer PayPal as a method of payment Facebook (market cap of $66.8 billion) Amazon ($118 billion) as two examples, if both of these websites use PayPal then why should EBAY's only be $73 billion.
In a way then i have not bought stocks in EBAY nut instead have bought stocks in PayPal, i see no point in the future of this business just disappearing but i see it instead of growing from strength to strength as more and more purchases are made through PayPal, PayPal is already recognized world wide as a service of payment provider and it is unlikely that any company is suddenly able to take over from EBAY.
Monday, 11 February 2013
Why leaving the Japanese market was a mistake for Blackberry
Anybody who has read my other articles by this stage has probably realized i am a tiny bit pro Blackberry and the reason is that i believe they can rise again, they were once cool and this coolness is still firmly embedded within society they will not just fade away (i'll write another blog about this at some point) or rather they wouldn't if they had a smart ceo.
I understand that with a market share as low as 0.3% and the highest being 5% then this is not an encouraging market but here is why i believe that this is perhaps a brilliant market to be in for Blackberry.
1) Japanese people are tech-heads, they like the latest gadgets and groundbreaking stats and software, Blackberry has never had a very big market in this country but think back when have they ever offered something truly revolutionary or something that could be potentially on par with what is being offered by the competitors, now a lot of people reading this will point back to before the iPhone but that was also before the smartphone exploded onto the scene, with the z10 Blackberry are offering a product that not only keeps up with the rivals but also is in my opinion ahead of the game against the iPhone. Japan in my opinion would be the perfect place for Blackberry as they can finally show that there phones are capable of breaking into this market, normally i would say to break into a market a company needs a U.S.P but this companies U.S.P is that its Blackberry and if they can just recreate the hype there once was in the west then i'm sure the trend will follow to the east.
2) From a 0.3% market share it doesn't take much to publish results such as "market share in japan at new high" (all that would take is above 5%) or "market share in japan tripled". This really wont take much to achieve and will make Blackberry look very good to investors, if i came home and clicked on Google news and up pops the story "Blackberry share in japan at all time new high" i would definatley see this as better then "Blackberry exits Japanese market" and i'm sure many investors would as well, how good does a company that manages to turn around there position in a dwindling market look? answer very good.
Blackberry had the fight or flight situation here and they chose to turn and run away, run away from a country that has a lot of tech and a lot of potential, well done Mr. Thornsten Heins you've clearly made the best decision for your company.
I understand that with a market share as low as 0.3% and the highest being 5% then this is not an encouraging market but here is why i believe that this is perhaps a brilliant market to be in for Blackberry.
1) Japanese people are tech-heads, they like the latest gadgets and groundbreaking stats and software, Blackberry has never had a very big market in this country but think back when have they ever offered something truly revolutionary or something that could be potentially on par with what is being offered by the competitors, now a lot of people reading this will point back to before the iPhone but that was also before the smartphone exploded onto the scene, with the z10 Blackberry are offering a product that not only keeps up with the rivals but also is in my opinion ahead of the game against the iPhone. Japan in my opinion would be the perfect place for Blackberry as they can finally show that there phones are capable of breaking into this market, normally i would say to break into a market a company needs a U.S.P but this companies U.S.P is that its Blackberry and if they can just recreate the hype there once was in the west then i'm sure the trend will follow to the east.
2) From a 0.3% market share it doesn't take much to publish results such as "market share in japan at new high" (all that would take is above 5%) or "market share in japan tripled". This really wont take much to achieve and will make Blackberry look very good to investors, if i came home and clicked on Google news and up pops the story "Blackberry share in japan at all time new high" i would definatley see this as better then "Blackberry exits Japanese market" and i'm sure many investors would as well, how good does a company that manages to turn around there position in a dwindling market look? answer very good.
Blackberry had the fight or flight situation here and they chose to turn and run away, run away from a country that has a lot of tech and a lot of potential, well done Mr. Thornsten Heins you've clearly made the best decision for your company.
Sunday, 10 February 2013
This week in trading
All trades talked about are done via wall street stock survivior, this is a site that uses live feeds of stock prices and allows people to gain experience in a risk free manner.
Last week was a rather bothersome week on trading as most of my hopes were pinned to blackberry, i first bought this share at $13.10 a good few months ago and then it hit 30% growth, for me this was outstanding as i had only forecasted a 15% profit on this stock, but i believed i could get more out of this stock and so with BB10 launch a few days around the corner i kept it, much to my shock and horror BBRY plummeted taking all profits on the stock with it and also plunging into the minus, i was not going to sell however at a loss and so kept the stock, this week when the stock hit $16.01 i decided to sell, later on that day i saw the stock had dropped back down to $15.90 and i promised myself if BBRY went back down into the 15.80's i'd buy it, about 30 minutes later i was given my chance, i saw the stock had dropped 4 points to $15.86 and so i seized the day (carpe diem), rolled the dice and bought it again, currently the stock is at $16.49 (down 0.47) and so it will be interesting to see this one play out.
By far the best surprise of the week was Activision Blizzard, for quite some time now this stock has been sitting stagnant in my portfolio fluctuating around the point i bought it ($11.33), i was tempted to sell this stock numerous times when it was earning me a tiny total of just $75 on 1,000 shares, i always wanted this stock as a long term investment however as they have a rather well built moat with a high cash pile and 0% debt to asset ratio, surely one day this stock will be a new high, then late thursday they published there profit reports and showed it was a new highest revenue for the company, i sold this share for $13.41 on friday banking the $2,085 this investment made me and i have every intention of buying again some day, i believe this stock for now will depreciate in value as they will be unable to maintain the current revenue income, but instead this stock will be a good long term investment.
Every week i plan to do a section called "why are you even in my portfolio"
This weeks award goes to starbucks
Please don't get me wrong i'm happy i bought it at $47.43 (when they were being sued by the British govermount) as I've nearly earned $10 dollars a stock on this investment but the question remains why is it in my portfolio, i like to invest in technology and unless i'm missing something coffee is a service not a form of technology, i don't really track this stock at all but i like sitting back and reaping in the profits from it, i understand the company and i understand the business model i just don't understand starbucks why are you even in my portfolio?
Another topic i'd like to talk about every week is "teenage traders top choice for next week"
in this topic i will talk about what stocks i am considering buying, the first of the two and more likely is ebay, ebay to me apears pretty undervalued as it is at the heart of most online transactions and so i can see this being a good long term buy, the other is microsoft, don't ask me why i just see this stock rising in the future, i probably wont buy this but i'll keep an eye on it
this week my portfolio was up 10.27% and my portfolio BETA is 0.7
Last week was a rather bothersome week on trading as most of my hopes were pinned to blackberry, i first bought this share at $13.10 a good few months ago and then it hit 30% growth, for me this was outstanding as i had only forecasted a 15% profit on this stock, but i believed i could get more out of this stock and so with BB10 launch a few days around the corner i kept it, much to my shock and horror BBRY plummeted taking all profits on the stock with it and also plunging into the minus, i was not going to sell however at a loss and so kept the stock, this week when the stock hit $16.01 i decided to sell, later on that day i saw the stock had dropped back down to $15.90 and i promised myself if BBRY went back down into the 15.80's i'd buy it, about 30 minutes later i was given my chance, i saw the stock had dropped 4 points to $15.86 and so i seized the day (carpe diem), rolled the dice and bought it again, currently the stock is at $16.49 (down 0.47) and so it will be interesting to see this one play out.
By far the best surprise of the week was Activision Blizzard, for quite some time now this stock has been sitting stagnant in my portfolio fluctuating around the point i bought it ($11.33), i was tempted to sell this stock numerous times when it was earning me a tiny total of just $75 on 1,000 shares, i always wanted this stock as a long term investment however as they have a rather well built moat with a high cash pile and 0% debt to asset ratio, surely one day this stock will be a new high, then late thursday they published there profit reports and showed it was a new highest revenue for the company, i sold this share for $13.41 on friday banking the $2,085 this investment made me and i have every intention of buying again some day, i believe this stock for now will depreciate in value as they will be unable to maintain the current revenue income, but instead this stock will be a good long term investment.
Every week i plan to do a section called "why are you even in my portfolio"
This weeks award goes to starbucks
Please don't get me wrong i'm happy i bought it at $47.43 (when they were being sued by the British govermount) as I've nearly earned $10 dollars a stock on this investment but the question remains why is it in my portfolio, i like to invest in technology and unless i'm missing something coffee is a service not a form of technology, i don't really track this stock at all but i like sitting back and reaping in the profits from it, i understand the company and i understand the business model i just don't understand starbucks why are you even in my portfolio?
Another topic i'd like to talk about every week is "teenage traders top choice for next week"
in this topic i will talk about what stocks i am considering buying, the first of the two and more likely is ebay, ebay to me apears pretty undervalued as it is at the heart of most online transactions and so i can see this being a good long term buy, the other is microsoft, don't ask me why i just see this stock rising in the future, i probably wont buy this but i'll keep an eye on it
this week my portfolio was up 10.27% and my portfolio BETA is 0.7
Welcome to the blog page of the teenage trader
I'm afraid to say i did not believe that tumblr best suited a Blog about stocks as i could not see how many people had viewed the blog and also i did not like the layout, it seemed too social for a blog that is stock orientated.
Here then is the new blog site for the Teenage trader (found on twitter as @worldstockaroo).
what does this blog serve to do?
in the event that there is an exceptionally large document i wish to write such as one of the following..
1) review of a weeks trading
2) my thoughts on a particular stock
3) why i'm buying or selling a particular stock
4) miscellaneous
... i will write the document on this blog and share it on twitter and maybe even the tumblr page
i intend to keep the tumblr page (http://teenagestocktrader.tumblr.com/) in order to reply to anything i see in hope that someone reply's and maybe even corrects me.
stay tuned for updates on the teenage trader.
N.B i specialize in the market of american technology, weird for a British school boy i know but still.
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